the bad news for romney in these three polls is that in ohio, a state that is critical, romney strategists think they have to win florida and ohio to get to 270 electoral votes. he's still down eight percentage points, and what we've seen across these polls is that obama is increasingly competitive with romney on who would do best to handle the economy. but the fact that we've got a little bit of movement nationally and movement in florida and virginia tells me that there's still some play in this electorate, in this contest, and that's the hope for romney going into this debate tonight. >> what do you think happened in florida versus in ohio? because for a while, they were both tracking. i mean, florida by the gallup poll, he was down by nine points, romney was. what happened in florida? >> there was a poll last week that showed florida down nine for romney. i think that's too high. the campaign has begun advertising -- the romney campaign, that is, advertising more heavily in florida than they had been previousism we see in our poll that romney's favorables are up, so i think some of tha

>> right now obama has a six point lead over romney. interestingly he hd a six point lead last november when we can our baseline poll. so to some degree, we're looking at a partisan environment where the vast majority of voters have made up their minds. we know where they're going to be. they'll be fighting over a small slice of the electorate. a six point lead for an incumbent president is not that great. so as peter hart, the democrat who does our poll said yesterday, president obama's approval rating has skrept up, people getting more optimistic about the economy, but what that has done is taken him from a serks where he was in an underdog for re-election to now that he's got a 50/50 shot, but not much better than that. >> what was the approval rating? >> 49%. same as his share of the ballot. >> that's got to get before 50, right? hard to get elected under 50. >> well, george w. bush got elected in 2004 under 50. i think the key thing is to be on the high side between 45 and 50. you don't necessarily have too get over that. right tra

. >>> the results of the latest nbc/wall street journal poll are out. romney says gaining ground. that's not what i saw. joining us, let's get the real skinny on this, cnbc's chief washington correspondent, john harwood. interesting numbers there on ryan as well. >> absolutely. what we've seen is all year long we've had a very stable presidential race with obama holding a small lead. this poll shows accumulating advantages for the president. first of all, let's look at the top line. obama holds his lead at 48/44. it was 49/43 last month. this is well within the margin of error. we have a new player in the races, paul ryan the vice presidential choice of mitt romney. how has his introduction been? his image is 33% favorable, 32% unfavorable, muddied by all of the controversy about the ryan budget and the partisan attacks from democrats. that's what polarization does for you. now, the question on the ryan budget is, whose issue is it? if you consider the medicare issue, the one democrats have been focusing on, so far we still have a couple months to go in the campaign. but so far de

it's going to be close, but many polls have romney ahead right now, so that's interesting. and it's early. >> it is. we've posed this question, i posed it to jim grant earlier. you remember the late '70s, donald, are we in a new normal where we're just going to muddle along for, you know -- i hope i live a long life but i'm starting to wonder whether i'll see the days of the '80s and '90s again. have we just as a planet lived beyond our means for too long to where we'll have decades of coming to grips with that or can we get back to where we were? >> i listened to jim say basically trouble is opportunity and there's great opportunity out there. there's amazing opportunity to do things, and one of those opportunities is certain types of real estate, including houses. there are certain areas that it's too late. miami, certain parts of new york, there are places where the market is better than it's ever been. it's been amazing. miami is the greatest example of it. miami is through the roof, and you know, two years ago, you couldn't give away apartments and in miami, it's a lit

but another poll, arg had romney up one. there's a new poll out today, came out today, survey usa has obama up one, 45% to 44% in ohio. >> i guess it depends on how many democrats you poll and how many republicans. >> that's true too. >> and that's why the debate is so important. because that deals with the energy and enthusiasm of your political base and that gets the turnout. if democrats are feeling muted and down beat after the debate, they might not be as fired out to go out and get their friends and rent a van and go to the polling place. the same thing with the republicans on the flip side. the enthusiasm and turnout on the base is going to matter in ohio. >> eamon, thank you. >> you bet. >> okay. are you a nationals fan? >> i'm -- i'm not. i'm not a baseball guy. so, but they're having a good year down here and redskins are doing all right too. >> yeah, that's true. a programming note, cnbc's coverage of the vice presidential debate starts tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. are you part of this? >> i am. carl and i

we were talking before the break, so we have the colorado poll saying romney will win. ras mmussen up two for romney. >> do not bring up rasmussen. >> and chuck todd yesterday on meet the press talking about the enthusiasm gap. >> reuters has obama up. >> so how do you read it this morning? >> romney has some momentum from the debate. i think the debate is a more powerful political force in the race than the unemployment numbers that came out. we were all talking about those on friday. but you had more than north of 60 million people watching these two guys on wednesday night and you see some momentum, democrats say the gap has narrowed in some states where obama had a lead. he's getting closer in most of the swing states. up two in rasmussen, down three in gallup. and the question is does this week continue that momentum. the vice president debate in the past has been critical for either accelerating or breaking the momentum one way or the other for the party in power. and we saw dick cheney came through twice for president bush, once in 2000 against joe lieberman when

, seven points, eight points for romney? >> that was seven points up for romney. this election is going to be just like 2010, all about jobs. whoever the floridians believe is going to get the economy going that's who they're voting for. that's how i won. i think romney right now, as you could see in the debate. >> is he leading in florida? >> yes. >> by? >> i'd be shocked if it's -- >> less than seven but more than one. >> it's going to be just like my race. people, they either want a job or they want to get it, they need a job or want to keep their job. look, we've done really well, the biggest drop in unemployment, consumer confidence up five-year high, unemployment has dropped, the number of people in unemployment dropped 40%, tourism is up, 90 million people come in tourism, exports are up, home prices are up, construction is up, so we're headed in the right direction but it's still about jobs. >> isn't that a reason for people to feel good about how things are going thinking okay we'll stick with what's going to this p

if you're correct and you're ahead in the polls, senator santorum stays in and governor romney and we have four split, we don't have a clear, unified winner, that suggests that this goes to a convention and there's something happening there. otherwise referred to as a brokered convention. it changes the whole dynamic. i'm wondering where your scenario probably -- it's a possibility? >> oh, sure, it's a possibility. look, because of the sheer scarce of money, it's almost impossible to knock romney out because of a modern internet-based campaigning, it's impossible to knock the rest of us out so you have the ncaa final four with no elimination. one of two things is going to happen. somebody will catch fire in may and so clearly become the nominee that delegates will migrate to them and it will be over or while negotiate all through july and early august and somebody will emerge. i don't think the country is going to go to some magic personality that hasn't been through this, hasn't been vetted, hasn't had all of the opposition research. i think that would be an extraordinary high-risk g

and mitt romney can do better. >> polls on obama care 53% against 34%. if there's another four years, obama care will be law. there's no -- if the president gets back in, right? >> that's a very good point. >> no question, it's 53%, 43%. you've got to look at that poll too. and people aren't single-issue voters, but 53 -- and right track, we heard all this improvement from john about the right track has gone up to 39%. only 39% think we're on the right track. it's amazing that bill clinton's speech seemed to convince a lot of people that you don't -- you're not really as bad off as you think. and no president could've done better. and not that -- >> with all due respect -- >> not that bill would maybe mislead us, but there's a book out called "the amateur" about the obama presidency and that title came from bill clinton -- you can say it's -- that klein's exaggerating, but the bill clinton speech turned a lot of things around it seems, governor. >> that's a good point. bill clinton's a team player, he gives a great speech, but he doesn't believe that. be

do you know in real polling whether romney is still behind there in ohio? do you have anything that these guys apparently have that they're putting into their models? >> one they're looking at public shows that show barack obama slightly ahead, most within the margin of error, including cnn today. they assume in those polls a bigger number of democrat also show up to the polls than most people think is likely because they are tending to use the sample from 2008, where yeah, democrats were up about plus eight in terms of turnout. in 2004, republicans were up about plus four. i think this year somewhere in between. if you look at the public polls and their methodology and sampling, they're oversampling democrating as compared to what everyone thinks is going to happen. we have the energy on our side this year which is different. second is it's just awful close. so even if you assume that more democrats are going to show up than republicans, at those kind of numbers, still these polls are within the margin of error. the rcp average is within the margin of erro

one of the things we saw in our poll, two things behind romney's move up to obama. he reasserted who can best lead in the economy. the second thing is romney has become competitive with the president on who can serve as commander in chief. obama has a three-point lead that tells you that the challenger reached a point of acceptability on that issue and one of the factors in that may be the libya controversy, because we saw by 36, i think 39-26 that americans thought that that attack could have been prevented rather than being something that was just going to happen anyway, that suggests that the president has taken a little hit on leadership in foreign policy entering this debate. >> it's like no state -- not any state, i don't expect romney and ryan to be out in california but even pennsylvania now, they send paul ryan there and the president is still going to north carolina. no one is creeding anything at this point. >> chuck todd points out colorado is probably the swing state that gets the least respect. he was tweeting about this over the weekend because it's h

the exit poll indicates that democrats were about 9% of the vote. that vote was strongly for santorum. some of it was santorum sought it and some because they were trying to make trouble. you may remember why mitt romney voted for paul songas in 1992. he was the strongest to might week weaker for the republicans. >> what do you think when you go to the convention and there's no nominee. >> i think the odds of that are low. i think when we get through this in june, get through the primaries, mitt romney will either have the majority of the delegates in happened or be close enough to that majority that the other candidatings in essence will not formally with draw, he'll watch? >> wishy washy. just watching you dance around and change your wishy washy -- >> >> get a spine, would you? your time is not up yet. >> it is february right now. >> right. be a man. you said march. >> he's nominee in february. >> you said march, you know. stick with that. grow a spine. >> no. i do thing we'll know. what i'm saying is i don't think -- i think this thing is going

and in iowa, obama holds a wider lead, 50-42, but a rasmussen poll had romney up three in i a iowa. the hmaximum margin of railroad is three point, but the difference between rasmussen and nbc is 11. so if you can explain that to me -- really. and then gallup, which after the convention, gallup consistently had obama up by five points and rasmussen was closer. rasmussen has i think the president up by one or two and gallon up it's 47-47. national polls become according to pundits less important because they you willy twr lact the way you can win the electoral college. and some assumptions that bom so far had ohio and virginia, that romney would need to win all these other states where he's down by more than three. but if you can tell me before all the debates who will win ohio, nobody knows will win ohio. i guarantee you, nobody knows who will win ohio. nobody knows any of this stuff. >> and that's why he we have elections. >> on november 6 we'll take a huge poll. and if you poll even 2,000 people, but if you poll 1500 people, you poll this 1500 and you poll that 1500 -- >> some are

romney dominates whites. obama dominates the minority vote. a related question is what is the relative proportion of seniors strongly romney and drunk people strongly obama. that's really the test. and the obama campaign when polls were showing them tied said, well, we're actually doing better than that because the way that pollsters calculate who is likely to vote is screening out some of our people. on the flip side, the romney people are saying the enthusiasm among our base is not adequately captured in those likely voters screened. so there's an analytical disagreement between the two and that will get settled today. >> i was kidding about dixville notch, but where are those 11 people that voted for him last time? i mean, it's 5-5. did they move? i heard of a cnn poll that showed a tie. but then the dr, did you see it was 30% republican, 41% democrat, and it came out a tie. so they needed a plus 11 to get it a tie. does that mean anything? >> well, what the partisan identification balance turns out to be today is going to be one of the cri

and if santorum can interest some how break through there, hugh there's a new poll showing mitt romney's only four points ahead of rick santorum in a state that has been thought of as a home game for mitt romney. he needs to win. and if he does, he's going to continue an strengthen his grip on the nomination. but if santorum can break through and get that win in a closely contested mid western state that he hasn't gotten in ohio, he didn't get in michigan, then we could have a little bit of a different ball game and some of the delegate math looks less compelling if santorum can really break through, consolidate that conservative vote. >> and there's a story in this morning's "washington post," headline obama struggles with big dodonors. when it comes on big donors, looks like obama has half the big donors that he had at the exact same time before he was president. he has only about 11,000 donors who paid more than $2,000. at this same time i guess we're talking five years ago, he had 23,000. what do we make of that, how important ultimately is that? >> i think a couple of things. first

a recent gallonon poll had mitt romney defeating barack obama by four points. no other republican candidate comes close. the notion he somehow isn't doing well when he has more than double the number of delegates, at worst tied with barack obama in the national polls. he's doing really well. he's tied or beating an indumb went president and winning by more than a factor of two in the delegate count. >> there could be a method to the madness. he hasn't had to tack so far right so he alienates the middle. he's doing enough to stay electable if you will and hasn't had to move too far right. you could actually say it's working out the way it should be working out. >> well the other thing i think it reveals, joe, there's a resiliency in mitt romney. look at the fact he's been on the ropes and has come back and had a couple of experiences in states for growth. he came back in double digit deficit in florida to beat gng gk, came back from a double deficit digit in ohio to beat santorum and other examples as well so there's a resiliency in his campaign which is showing

polls suggest that rick santorum is coming on strong against mitt romney. the former governor's state of michigan. strategists say ron paul and newt gingrich aren't really factors in this race. the governor is expected to endorse romney today, though. romney is having trouble in the state because he opposed the auto bailout. >> did you read where romney was yesterday? >> yes. >> in your favorite publication. he was dialing for dollars, mitt romney, and the law firm that was responsible for what, joe? >> for helping with the bailout? >> for the bankruptcy filing. >> i'll tell you what i saw, in "the journal" today there's a romney piece. >> his op-ed on china. >> last night watching one of the nightly news offerings on the broadcast i saw that romney would have let the -- was recommending to let the automakers die. >> yes. >> did you see that was the term? but then when you listen to him, he says he wanted to go through it. there was question whether it could have been done through normal bankruptcy. to say letting it die as opposed to what he said letting i

look at the average recent polls from realclearpolitics.com with mitt romney a 1.5 lead over rick santorum, santorum fell significantly behind in polls late last week so both candidates are going directly after one another, yesterday mitt romney was making fun of rick santorum's op-ed in the "wall street journal" on his economic plan. mitt romney suggesting that rick santorum very late to that party. here's romney. >> i'm glad he recognizes this has got to be a campaign about the economy, time to focus on the economy and for to you say if the economy is going to be the issue we focus on who has the experience to get this economy going again? senator santorum is a nice guy but never had a job in the private sector. >> but of course for rick santorum it's not only about the economy. he's counting on votes in the western part of the state from conservative christians so he's weaving in social issues to his discussion of the economy and the role of government as when he attacked mitt romney yesterday for having supported an obama-like program for health care in massachusetts. here's santorum.

do you believe those polls? >> they move around, but i do think that he got a bump after the democratic convention. no republican has been elected president without winning ohio. so i think that's -- mitt romney will have to rebound. and i see the debates where he's a good debater. he won 16 out of 20 republican debates by his own count, but i think he did well. >> i'm going to make this hard for you. if you were advising romney right now, what would you be telling him to do? >> i'd tell him that the debates are his last chance. >> so do you tap hard to the right, do you go down the middle? i would argue some of the things he's said over the past couple of days around taxes and raising them on the middle class -- not raising them, but suggesting that taxes will not go down suggest he's going more to the middle. is that the right or wrong answer? >> that's the right answer, but i think the perception of governor romney is he's already too encrusted in the right. the american people want a centrist pragmatic presi

i think a lot of the performance of the market this year was tied to the idea romney was going to win. >> jason, here's in hindsight it now looks obvious, there was a perception that the republicans would have a lot more people show up at the polls and the polls and intraders would be wrong because it was factoring in 2008 numbers for democrats and republicans showed up. as it turned out there were fewer republicans that showed up than 2008. do you think portfolio managers didn't realize obama was going to be reelected? >> we have seven traveling analysts, 45 people. we visit probably 700 or 800 meetings a year and 70% kept track of this, thought that president obama would win re-election, so in some ways it's hard to assume that this wasn't in the market. these are all institutional investors. by the same token, i think the big misconception was that it didn't take people long to figure this out, is that if president obama were reelected somehow the fiscal cliff and some other issues would be resolved. barry mentioned 1948. you mentioned 1980. candidly i'm more worried about a 1936 t

we had a poll about two weeks ago in wisconsin showing mitt romney up by three points. i think it is a roller coaster. >> right. but if you were to just -- it's not good to stereotype parties although we do once in a while but what you did or at least the way that the left and the unions, the way that you were portrayed -- >> yeah. >> -- to still prevail in a blue state after the things they said about you, i'm just wondering whether that you can take that and say, okay, the people in ohio might be more amenable to doing things -- >> look at the front of "usa today." >> swing states. >> where the ads are. two americas in the presidential election. it's wisconsin, ohio, pennsylvania, nevada, virginia, new hampshire, places like that. so we saw, you know, momentary break in political ads and now back at it with the presidential race and open u.s. senate seat that could be the -- >> i'm trying to get at whether the people -- >> transfer. >> in wisconsin really were voting to sort of back you on what you did with public unions and collective bargaining and whether to expect

latest poll shows mitt romney with a strong lead. joining us is former presidential candidate herman cain and guest host, former vermont governor and dnc chair howard dane. mr. cain, good to see you again. >> good morning, happy to see you, thank you. >> what do you think is going to happen in florida and does it matter? >> it does matter. and i think it's going to be closer than a lot of people are anticipating because i don't believe that the polls are totally reflective of the surge that's going on with the newt gingrich campaign. i was in florida yesterday, and i appeared at two events with newt, and there's an enthusiasm and an excitement there that tells me that it could be a lot closer than a lot of people are expecting. >> what was it about newt's approach versus governor romney's approach that got you to endorse newt or to throw in with the newt band wagon? >> my number one priority was economic growth and jobs. newt's plan is closest to my 9-9-9 plan and it's bolder than what governor romney had proposed. this current admin

check the polls in ten days. and we could be even going into the debates. >> john, what did you make of romney's comments to david gregory about taxes? he seemed to suggest on the high end that he is not lowering taxes, might be closing loopholes, but i was surprised by his comment. >> he's always said that his plan was going to be distributionally neutral. that is, he's going to cut rates 20% across the board for everybody, which takes the top rate from 35% down to 28% under his plan. but he said he wasn't going to give a net tax cut to people at the top because he was going it close enough deductions and loopholes to do that. the challenge is how many deductions and loopholes can you close to get there. source of the democratic criticism of him and some of the tax policy analysts criticism is there aren't enough -- >> middle class gets hurt more. a although a piece said it can be done. >> aig and the sale of these treasury, political or not? >> yes, i think the administration wants to try to tie that one down b

you look at the polls they tell you clearly just like voters will tell you here in the parking lot of a shopping mall, this congress simply is not getting the job done. >> a lot of talk, and not a lot of action. >> reporter: what action would you like to see? >> jobs, better jobs, better pay, people not losing their houses. you know, to see a family on the streets or going to a food bank to make -- it's just sad. i work t jobs. >> fresh faces are always a good thing, you know, if you're there for only to back the people that have put you in there, and not to do what's best for the country overall, and you night us all, then i think is t is a very good thing to have new people on the scene. >> reporter: but of course that's the problem in this race, you can't have a fresh face. redistricting has thrown together two members, republican jim renasi, democrat betty sutton into the same district, fighting one another and trying to make the case to constituents that it's not their fault, but it's not easy. >> i think it can be very discouraging. all people are looking for is a shot, a fair c

now, going into election day, the polls show governor romney had a slight lead here in the sunshine state, but it appears the president may have won the state for the second time. and here's some of the keys to the apparent obama victory. rehad a very strong showing in the i-4 corridor, which is the middle of the state. let's say tampa to orlando. and further east, this was critical because the south typically goes democratic, the north typically goes republican. he was also strong with noncuban hispanics according to exit polls, the youth vote, and surprisingly, the independent vote according to exit polls because that earlier was polling in favor of mr. romney. now, here in florida with the foreclosure rate the highest in the country and the unemployment rate of 8.7% above the normal average, it was the economy that was the key issue. and with the people that we spoke to throughout the day yesterday, whether or not they favored obama or romney, they really felt their candidate put forth the best proposal to get the economy moving again and to help this state. it appears that mr. obama m

but the polls you see out of florida showing mitt romney having stopped newt gingrich's momentum and maybe having a slight lead right now reflect the impact of the very focused television ad campaign that floridians are seeing right now and mitt romney is outspebd spending newt gingrich and the super pac is outspending the super pac. >> john, the number you saw 86%, that's not florida. that's to be the nominee. >> reporter: i'm sorry. what's the question? >> i said that 86% we just put up for in trade was not florida, that's to be the republican nominee. >> reporter: right. i think he's going to be the republican nominee, too. >> well, we were right all along. >> reporter: well, we will see. we have a few contests to play out. i've been wrong so often in this campaign cycle so far that i wouldn't say anything confidently but i do think that having moved from south carolina, which was a perfect little laboratory for what newt gingrich was trying to do when he did have if not as much money as romney, sufficient money to get his message out, florida is a much bigger playing field, one l

i do think romney gets energy out of the decision because he can go to conservatives and republicans and independents and say you don't like obamacare and the polls show us especially white voters don't like it, and like in the wall street journal poll last week, 20% of whites said obamacare was a good idea and 50% a bad idea. much more popular among hispanics and african-americans -- >> if romney can connect the high unemployment rate to obamacare, then that gives him even more of a boost, don't you think? >> that's a stretch, but yes -- >> why is it a stretch? we have had people repeatedly come up and say the small businesses are not hiring because the cost has gone up dramatically -- >> you go from 49 employees to 50 and 51, your cost explode as a small business due to obamacare. the other thing that gets me is i am still hearing -- >> i think the evidence that obamacare has contributed to high unemployment is quite weak. >> it may have certainly slowed job growth. >> something did. but -- what was -- what did i say? you threw me off with your throwing your opinion in there. what

there are swing state polls and romney is down in the most important state. i'm just wondering, is the country more receptive to hearing about income and equality? you've got occupy wall street, you've got that movement. what -- can this ship be turned around or is this starting to resonate with people, the takes fairness in the president's word is something to look for, not in light of growth or policy but in terms of fairness? >> well, i think mitt believes in fairness as well. mitt would like to eliminate and come out and lower flatter tax rate. maybe not as low as forbes is but simple and in that approach. mitt's certainly got a challenge because i think the president is appealing to the most advice ral gut instinct essentially trying to redivide the pie when in fact we ought to be growing the pie. >> who said it first? someone said it, if you've got 50% on the receiving end, that's a pretty good number if you're in an election, isn't it? if they are on the receive end of government largess. >> i hope you're right. we'll see. i hope you're not right about

what the romney campaign has said and what is true is that the poll numbers just haven't moved that much. we had a race that essentially since mitt romney emerged from republican primaries and consolidated the conservative support has been essentially static. the "new york times"/cbs poll shows him up a point when you include leaders in that poll for the first time during that period. all of this is margin of error stuff. when i've been tracking this over the last few weeks it's about a 47-44 race. two points sometimes less, sometimes more. usually right in that range which means that either candidate could yuan and part of the reason is the way that these advertisements have been flooding a very small number of states with a lot of money behind them. $21 million have been spent just in this last week on ads in ten states and they are all the ones that the candidates go to. colorado, virginia, florida, pennsylvania, ohio, those are the -- that's the universe where these ads are running. i want to play a few clips of those to give people a flavor why in fact it is a draw. there are three

they said you can't do it, that's push polling. they didn't want to -- >> i guess birther questions are just out of the questions. >> steve, the knock on romney is people don't know where you really stand. do these numbers support that view? >> i think the 22% feels about right for this stage of the campaign. it's after labor day, we're going to be twiddling our thumbs. i think the numbers really begin to matter after labor day but certainly the campaign is going to be watching these numbers right now to figure out where they need to do work. i love those two comments km the aebs have more work to do. >> steve, it's called push polling? what is it called again? >> push polling. >> okay, i just wondered what the term was, when you load it -- >> i see, you're going back to the "new york times" this evening. >> you load to to what you want to get from the start. >> we use a democratic and republican pollster and the firming of of the questions and interpretation of the answers. >> i'm sure the times does, too. coming up europe to the

and even some polls on the economy, romney seems for be doing better on those. two points on the gwu poll today, right? and we'll get rasmussen -- >> i didn't see gw. i saw a "washington post" abc poll showed two points among likely voters nationally. >> in was two on gwu, too. politico was two points. rasmussen and gallup at 5 and rasmussen at 2. >> polls it show obama up 11 in swing states. that sounds high to me. but in any case, obama's ahead, romney has to change something. he has a chance to do it. >> all right, john harwood, thank you. >> today is the start of the fourth quarter. and joining us is teach stanley, chief economist for peerpont securities. the lead story is how trade is slowing around the world. all of europe's problems getting exported to the rest of the world. what do you think this means just in terms of the fourth quarter and maybe a look into next year? >> good morning, becky. well, i think right now the u.s. economy is really slow in part because of what you guys were just talking about, the election. i think a lot of businesses have go

either candidate can win it and it shows obama probably ahead of romney in most of the polls but here's the fundamental question. an incumbent president is 100% name i.d., 100% have an opinion about him even if it's meh. obama has been below 50% on two fundamental questions in the national polls for two and a half years. one, do you think he deserves re-election, two, do you approve of his job performance? with the exception of the one week where osama bin laden was killed he has been below 50%. historically what we learn from that is this incumbent presidents who are below 50% almost everyone else is either going to stay home or vote for your opponent. so 50% is a very important benchmark for an incumbent president. presidents above that, bill clinton, named richard nixon, named ronald reagan win. presidents bow low that, george h.w. bush, jimmy carter, lose. presidents at 50%, the right number, george w. bush win 58% of the vote. obama is below 50% at 47, 46, dangerous territory for the incumbent. >> stick around, we have more in a minute. "squawk" will be right back. >>> coming up, s

the number is 20 percentage points lower for romney. that's the reason why if -- forget about the other particulars of the poll. if you separate out, okay, the economy's bad, people want change, that's one thing. but how they feel personally about the candidates is something that matters an awful lot, too. the obama administration has been pretty successful at driving up negative feelings about mitt romney. >> it appears there's just 8% of independents who remain undecided. >> undecided are very small and negative towards both candidates. they don't rate obama very well, romney even worse. >> we have to race. appreciate it. >>> when we come back, a big miss for apple. ening to the numbers... ...and listening to your instinct duff & phelps finds the sweet spot that powers sound decisions. duff & phelps financial advisory and investment banking services. and so too is the summer event. now get an incredible offer on the powerful, efficient c250 sport sedan with an agility control sport-tuned suspension. but hurry before this opportunity..

talk to the romney campaign. they'll tell you they were behind. >> i said there was one poll yesterday that said that they were tied, what was it a national something or other poll. >> yeah but you look at all the polls, not just nationally but in the swing states he was behind. and the romney campaign acknowledged that. >> there's a difference between being behind and having nothing left to lose because you're totally written off by even your own party. >> the point i was making -- >> i don't agree with arianna on that either. i think he was still in the game going into the debate. he's more in the game after the debate than he was before. >> even late in the fourth quarter down by, i thought he said two touchdowns. >> two scores. >> all right. late in the fourth quarter -- >> two safeties. >> it was two safeties, whatever you were talking about, i don't think that was true either. we'll see. there's a poll coming out november 6 i want you to look at. >> you're right. >> the bottom line is -- >> i will say on th

we've seen some movement toward mitt romney in the polls. you saw that when joe biden raised the 47% video and went very hard about the values that mitt romney expressing there. but of course that provided an opening for paul ryan to come back at joe biden and his reputation for say things in the exactly the right way. >> i think the vice president very well knows that sometimes the words don't come out of your mouth the right way. >> but i always say what i mean. >> now, that was a very funny line by paul ryan, but what you saw was then vice president biden picked up and continued to go aggressively as he did all night after paul ryan. and he said it was the republican ticket that was being disingenuous when paul ryan was criticizing obama's economic record, the economic stimulus and biden says, wait a minute, you asked for some of that stimulus money. >> i love my friend here. i'm not allowed to show letters, but go on our website, he sent me two letters saying by the way, can you send me some stimulus money for companies here in the state

you know romney well. and given what the perception that has been engendered by the other side is of romney, is politics -- is business anywhere near as nasty and underhaded as poll tex? would you just give it up? you must be tired of the portrayal we have about mitt romney right now? >> mitt's a pretty tough guy. he's used to taking shots and he comes up smiling. as we expose the real mitt romney in this convention and i think ann did a wonderful job talking about her years with mi mitt. anyone who doesn't think mitt is a terrific human being just hasn't lived in this world. >> there's that expression you change your opinion when the facts change. but you've known him a long time. heap has come to different conclusions about certain issues than he had in prior administrations. is there anything to that perception that he's one dimensional and just will do or say anything to get elected, tom? >> it's just not true. mitt's a guy of present. i had him on my board for 15 years. he didn't change in those 15 ye

and there is new poll data out this morning. mitt romney now leads president obama by 48% to 47% in virginia. and in florida, obama leads 48% to 47% among likely voters. and in ohio, romney trimmed two percentage points off of obama's pre-debate lead. the president holds a 51-45% edge among likely vote everies there. john harwood will be joining us live from kentucky with more in just a few minutes. but first andrew has this morning's top business stories. >>> we got some banking news this morning on wall street. jpmorgan cfo dug braunstein will be stepping down. he'll take on another post within the company, so he won't be leaving, but it was on his watch that the jpmorgan london whale experience happened and there remains scrutiny all around that. he's expected to lead the bank's earnings call tomorrow morning, so a lot of interest thp. in other headlines related to jpmorgan, deal book is reporting that the fbi investigation into the bank's $6 billion trading loss may not inchbly indicate jamie dimon, buts investigation does n

i think most of the polling is modeling, you know, 2008, and i think it's going to be closer to 2010 than it's going to be to 2008. >> senator, do you think for the votes that romney needs to get in ohio, is it -- does it help him to seem more conservative and get your support and it's, like, some of the conservatives say, wow, i like romney now because rand paul is associating himself with him, or does it hurt people that might be in cleveland or, you know, somewhere in the more, i don't know, urban centers of ohio? i don't know what the difference? i grew up there, as i said, and there's major differences we thought between cincinnati and cleveland and just how we viewed a lot of things. does it help or hurt to have tea party support in ohio? >> well, i personally think sort of libertarian republicans attract people from the left, the right, and the center. those of us who are ready to come home from afghanistan, for example, i think attract some democrats and moderates. but as far as what governor romney needs to be, needs to be who he is, not who i am. but i'm happy to campaign f

so i think they see a "new york times" poll and finally say if the "new york times" is going to put romney up by three and not figure a way to not put him up by three because if there was a way for "new york times" not to put romney up by three they would have figured it out. ask the question differently, hanging chadds. even had him up, romney up with women and other demographics. >> see a rebound. >> 57. been 60. >> 57 is not a landslide. >> it's only may. >> what's going to happen? >> jimmy carter was up 15 points in 1980. and last i remember he won one state and it wasn't georgia. >> we remember that as oh, everybody knew that carter -- >> no. >> let's agree to one thing. if the governor, i pray that the governor does nothing but focus on two things. jobs and the economy. we need to get people back to work. we need to create an environment where a kid graduating from college can look forward to beginning a career. and by the way, these -- >> are you saying they will stay off social issues. >> let me say -- i'm having trouble with this thing. >> i don't think you need it. >> let me tell

he is more con seven difference than romney and he's -- when you look at the exit polls, among the most conservative republicans, rick santorum is winning them. he's been hoping and making the argument that once other candidates fell by the wayside, all of the misgivings on the right about mitt romney would accrue to his benefit and all of that vote would drift over to him. some of it did and he's been doing pretty well. much better than i ever expected, but not enough to beat mitt romney where he has to beat him. he can't lose closely contested stateses and go on to the mom nation th nomination that way. rick santorum could win louisiana. not enough deep south states to get to the nomination. we then go to maryland and wisconsin. which are the kind of places where we should expect based on the history of this campaign that mitt romney would win. then you go up to the northeast and, yes, pennsylvania is rick santorum's home state and he'll be strong in pennsylvania, but you have new york and connecticut and after that, you have new jersey. all states where mitt romney can be expected to

we like to like our presidents, joe, and romney has to move up on that polling scale. >> i don't like to make things too simple, but let's say that you call one thing the politics of envy and the other the politics of aspiration or class warfare. we've seen that done before, seen that the rich people obviously need to pay a lot more and i'm not going to do anything to the bottom 50%. the benefits will accrue. will there come a time in this country where that message works and resonates? in the past a lot of the voters seem to be above that ploy. >> i think the american people are ready for tough medicine. they are concerned about the fiscal situation not just in america but here at home at the kitchen table and so whether they're willing to pay the price on the spending side as well as so plugging some of the revenue loopholes, it needs serious conversation. the american people are prepared for it. we want our leaders to lead and not just kick the can down the field. we've had too much of that, and we need to get into the substance of having to change things in america. >> hey, ken, j

the polls have been great since the debate for romney. anybody who watched that debate really has second thoughts about obama. >> chuck talked about the enthusiasm gap, did some things that were very positive for romney as well. i think your point is that if jack was still the ceo and if ge owned 100% you're just making a tongue-and-cheek comment. >> if jack welch was still ceo chuck "today" would be walking into his office shaking and sweating. >> he try iz to get in the center a lot of center. >> i don't think he does. >> terrible in football in picking miami. >> on "meet the press" he was talking about the enthusiasm gap where republicans have a stronger enthusiasm this time around than the democrats. >> i just think the reporting is nothing unique. i think the reporting is very unfair when it comes to the republicans. >> check out some of the other networks. you'll see. >> i'll tell you something i see firsthand almost yesterday almost the whole day, i spent working on people to contribute to the campaign. >> right. >> the money is co

i don't know how to look at that only one poll that matters. and we have debates to go, all this stuff between now and the election. let's say that the president is re-elected. is it possible that he trian lates. do you feel he could work with you and you could work with him? >> this president isn't bill clinton. >> only one bill clinton. but could he trianlate at all? >> he could. but when you look at the people he surrounded himself with, in my view, they are the left of the left in political leadership. my greater fear, he gets re-elected and goes further to the left and we've seen the disaster that's been economically over the past couple of years. >> that just means nothing happens. >> you could have the senate and the house -- >> if the republicans have the senate and the house -- >> in many ways, it's up to the voters on what they want the vision of the country to be. >> when we come back on a squawk," kevin watch wilsh withr the rest of the morning. stick around. up. a short word that's a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if yo

i see 52 for the president's re-election and i think mitt romney's up to about 43. that's not, you know, in concrete, obviously, and it's been coming down. but an incumbent president has a lot of advantages. do you think it's a pretty tight race here? >> i think it's a tight race. and i note that number is coming down. i think it was up around 58 or 60. for those that follow it. the impact of the latest economic news always takes time to be reflected in the pollings. i think we're going to be up late on election night, i really do, and we're going to be looking at three or four states that could go either way by a very small percentage. and by the way, i want to thank you for having president clinton on. he's the gift that keeps on giving. and i want to thank you for that. i hope you'll have him on more often to talk about bain capital and the necessity to extend the bush tax cuts. so we appreciate that public service that you're doing. >> sterling is such -- i didn't even come up with sterling. we do have a sterling reputation. >> senator, we were debating this ear